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Nov
13
comment Risk and Reward in practice
Absolutely, agree fully. And then I also know several of the momentum based funds' owners personally, some of which manage just double digit millions, some triple digits, not huge by any of today's standards. But many have been in existence for several decades and if you follow momentum based fund performances you will see there were years where such funds horribly underperformed. Yet, investors stuck with those funds for various reasons, among others of course long-term performance, but also honesty, trust, and integrity in its management.
Nov
12
comment Risk and Reward in practice
@Richard, sorry I did not mean to address you directly, my comments are more geared towards most of the buy-side fund industry. Regarding your last sentence, I believe if one handles money responsibly while generating alpha, over a long period of time then clients will stick with such PM even if he underperforms others at a certain point in time.
Nov
12
comment Risk and Reward in practice
Just to not be misunderstood, my point is that it does not make a difference whether I am a trader or PM as long as I call the shots on risk. If I set myself a risk limit or stop and adhere to it and indeed sometimes get kicked out of trades then I am of course aware that the market may right after reverse and that I would have been in good shape if I had not squared my position. But that is a completely flawed way of thinking. If I am scared to underperform others and because of that cannot properly fulfill my fiduciary duty then I should never manage others' funds. Simple as that.
Nov
12
comment Risk and Reward in practice
Well, then I need to ask the PM why he/she is in this business in the first place: If one cannot make reliable predictions (for which I would not fault anyone because neither can I) but also does not find a momentum approach nor fundamental approach appealing then I think that person does not belong in the driving seat of a couple hundred million dollars or more. I find it almost a criminal act to not be in cash just because nobody else is, despite believing that investments will lose more money. Its peoples' significant investments those mor... are gambling with.
Nov
12
comment Risk and Reward in practice
I would again disagree in that loss limits are subtle. Loss limits are there for a reason. After all, you are (your firm is) risking clients' funds, sometimes the funds of the fund owners. The only people or whole industry group that does not seem to understand the meaning of fiduciary duty is the buy-side mutual fund industry. For most of them it seems to be ok to beat the benchmark index but still lose 30 or 40 percent. This concept will never get into my head. A great long-only fund PM is supposed to be all in cash when the global economy starts to falter.
Nov
12
comment Risk and Reward in practice
That last sentence scares me (and is probably the reason I have never entrusted a single dollar to buy-side funds in my life) ;-)
Nov
11
comment the law of comparative advantage and exchange rate
The author is half right, half wrong. Right in that PPP does not cause currencies to adjust for different purchasing power when currencies are pegged. Wrong, in that comparative advantage does not disappear just because currencies are pegged. Look at China and the US. A large driver of the persistent trade imbalance is the artificially weak yuan. It presents a persistent comparative manufacturing advantage to China.
Nov
8
comment Is the risk-reward ratio considered in Quantitative Finance?
My whole point is that quants should do what they do best, test out theories, develop models and by all means, work closely with traders and other risk takers to fully understand the repercussions when models eventually blow up or correlations break down. Strictly speaking an algorithmic trading strategy should not concern itself at all with risk-reward in the portfolio sense but it should generate trading signals based on the model intrinsic risk-reward characteristics. Whether signals are taken, how orders are sized, how pre-trade risk correlates with open positions should be left to traders
Nov
8
comment Is the risk-reward ratio considered in Quantitative Finance?
@sets, no question, I holeheartedly agree. But when you leave real risk and rewards in the hands of those with very little to no risk taking and managing experience due to an over-reliance on academic theories you end up with something like all current global central banks = blown out of any feasible proportion balance sheets and a gamble-like experiment that nobody understands nor risks to estimate the outcome of. Same stories goes with uncountable "quant desks" that blew up because of lack of risk management experience and over-reliance on models.Model risk is the most underpriced risk today
Nov
7
comment Is the risk-reward ratio considered in Quantitative Finance?
@SRXX, fair point which is why I qualified my comment in response to the question above in that it reflects just my opinion and not necessarily a universal view. It is just that I find the term "quant" in general quite overrated. I do not consider myself a quant because I lack a rigorous mathematical and/or statistical background.
Nov
7
comment Is the risk-reward ratio considered in Quantitative Finance?
@Shane, I guess I had a specific sub-group in mind when I said quants do not engage in risk/reward considerations. For me "quants" rarely should be tasked with risk-return considerations because most severely lack real trading and risk management experience. You can't say you fulfill your fiduciary duty to clients and at the same time put billions at risk off the back of theoretical concepts and historically tested ideas and strategies. Banks and hedge funds are generally very good at segregating who thinks about risk/reward and who performs mathematical/statistical analysis...
Nov
7
comment Is the risk-reward ratio considered in Quantitative Finance?
if this is "quant" to you then what is not? Portfolio selection and Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) lies pretty much at the heart of any discretionary and on-fundamentals focused portfolio manager. I guess knowledge of MPT is most likely tested in one of the first interview questions of any junior starting out in the traditional buy-side industry.
Nov
6
comment Is the risk-reward ratio considered in Quantitative Finance?
@TomTucker, with traders I mean anyone who takes and manages risk, someone who signs responsible for profits and losses.
Nov
6
comment compute sharpe ratio for options?
@godzilla, please take this in a positive spirit, but I highly recommend you to familiarize yourself with basic finance concepts before you advance to option pricing and theory. The reason even today many new grads and desk juniors undergo "jungle bootcamp" at sell-side trading desks is because basics are so important. I honestly do not mean that in a derogatory way, it is just that your question and comments point to couple missing fundamentals in your arsenal.
Nov
6
comment How to properly take averages to reduce data in regression/panel data analysis
@Cindy88, Praise the Lord for bell-curve(s) is all that comes to mind (but then I focused on your profile not your question). Sorry, just could not help it. And back to the topic: I love to help but can you please provide more details. Similar to variance reduction techniques on the Monte Carlo side, much more details are needed what you exactly try to achieve in order to decide on the best algorithm optimization. Care to share the type of regression you try to run?
Nov
6
comment How to value VIX Option?
Do you understand exactly how the VIX index is derived?
Nov
6
comment Is the risk-reward ratio considered in Quantitative Finance?
Quants do not care about risk-reward, its not part of their job description. Strategists and traders do.
Nov
6
comment Black-Scholes: Why the focus on volatility?
@AndrewDabrowski, I am not sure I understand what you are trying to say. I suggest to look at the big picture. Single plain vanilla options represent views on implied volatility (for most part). If you think implied volatility should be lower than the market prices then you sell the option and vice versa. Simple as that. How you arrive at your own implied volatility estimate is limited only by your imagination.
Nov
6
comment Black-Scholes: Why the focus on volatility?
@rwolst, I did not make any claims about the distributional assumption of any of the pricing models. What I mean to say is that IV is generally the variable to which vanilla options are most sensitive to (assuming delta-hedged option positions mostly eliminate exposure to the underlying price). I tried to disagree with the notion that IV is "just" a "fudge factor" as implied by the OP.
Nov
6
comment Black-Scholes: Why the focus on volatility?
I believe solving PDEs is a more sophisticated and also the more popular approach at exotic trading desks.