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Oct
1
comment Predicting Price Movements on a Betting Exchange
A Practical Liquidity-Sensitive Automated Market Maker Gaming Prediction Markets: Equilibrium Strategies with a Market Maker An Optimization-Based Framework for Automated Market-Making
Sep
28
comment Predicting Price Movements on a Betting Exchange
The outcome is binary, and you can interpret the odds of the bet as the implied probability (1/decimal odds). Don't think volatility pricing is useful here, if you want to price the outcome you'd have to compile statistics and model. But I suspect that's not what you're after.