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Mar
4
revised Is there any good research on support and resistance?
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Mar
4
comment Price of Brent versus West Texas Intermediate
If you rebalance the hedge every time the contracts are rolled, you'll get something much closer to the plot in green.
Mar
3
comment Price of Brent versus West Texas Intermediate
@fRed I agree, actual futures/options positions will provide a different picture than what's shown above. However, the one similarity is the "flatness" of the above tops and the "spikyness" of the bottoms. The reason that I'm not playing the game is my fear of the current situation turning into something similar to the above "May 2007" episode (spike after spike). The return to a neutral zone may take many months, and predicting that requires data that I can't get.
Mar
3
revised Is there any good research on support and resistance?
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Mar
3
awarded  Commentator
Mar
3
comment Is there any good research on support and resistance?
Here's just one example of what I would call "garbage". Notice at the bottom of the last page, where it came from. citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/…
Mar
3
comment Is there any good research on support and resistance?
@chris: I wasn't trying to be a jerk by giving a short answer. It's just that that is the answer. Anyone that runs the above, or similar code over and over will find that it is rare to NOT find "support" and "resistance". They can prove it to themselves, regardless of what I say. I don't think this is off-topic, I think it is reality poking through.
Mar
2
answered Is there any good research on support and resistance?
Mar
2
answered How does UBS hedge its exposure to XVIX ETN?
Mar
2
revised Supply and Demand of Oil
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Mar
2
revised Supply and Demand of Oil
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Mar
2
comment Supply and Demand of Oil
@Archival: I edited my original answer to answer your questions.
Mar
2
revised Supply and Demand of Oil
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Mar
1
revised Price of Brent versus West Texas Intermediate
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Mar
1
comment Supply and Demand of Oil
Really? And, the question is closed? Really? If he asked a similar question on supply/demand for a CDO or CDO^2 would the question get closed?
Mar
1
comment Supply and Demand of Oil
@fRed: The curve is custom built. Standard data is published too late, revised too much, and includes what various countries "want you to know" (which is sometimes laughably unrealistic). The horizontal axis is cumulative actual production. What is shown for each data point is the average cost of production (it's really a distribution...lognormal...gamma...or whatever...stubby left tail, long right tail). And, you're right, if the Saudis offset the losses of others, the whole curve will shift to the right. Also, this is an overall curve. There's actually one for Brent and another for WTI.
Mar
1
revised Supply and Demand of Oil
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Mar
1
answered Supply and Demand of Oil
Feb
28
awarded  Scholar
Feb
28
accepted Price of Brent versus West Texas Intermediate