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Re-reading I've clarified the main point I'm trying to get across
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Paul Young
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YOU are the biggest risk to the process. All the hopes, wishes and bias you come with get in the way of making good decisions. The more you want something to be true, the more you have to kick the tires. So many people try out a bunch of random stuff, find a pattern that has a notional profit and just get blinded by dollar signs. That's when you start to skip over important details and you make all the sort of errors as detailed in the other answers here. Even when you are aware of these risks, they only get lip service while you are too busy grasping at the profit. You need to keep your feet on the ground and make reality based decisions. (Note that when you start to loose money fear takes the place of greed and you continue to make bad decisions)

Remember that in the end your own or your clients wealth will rest on the decisions you make. You will have down days, when you see your wealth falling what will you do? Unless, you have rock solid faith in your process you will start to tinker and go into a death spiral. To have that faith you need to have absolute discipline right from the start.

Luckily, there is a well established approach that has been developed of thousands of years to tackle this problem and it has proved very successful. It's called the Scientific method. At this point people throw up their arms and say that's too hard to understand or I don't have time for this. Well if you aren't prepared to work hard and spend the time, you've already lost. Believe me, I've done this for a long time now and I'm convinced this is the most valuable thing you can learn. It doesn't mean you have to have a PhD, wear a white coat and smoke a pipe.

The scientific method really is your friend here. Wandering away from reality into fantasy is so tempting but will lead to failure. Step away from the P&L! Don't look at the notional dollars instead work out what you know and what you can prove.

The scientific method is your friend here. Wandering away from reality into fantasy is so tempting but will lead to failure. Step away from the P&L!

YOU are the biggest risk to the process. All the hopes, wishes and bias you come with get in the way of making good decisions. The more you want something to be true, the more you have to kick the tires. So many people try out a bunch of random stuff, find a pattern that has a notional profit and just get blinded by dollar signs. That's when you start to skip over important details and you make all the sort of errors as detailed in the other answers here. Even when you are aware of these risks, they only get lip service while you are too busy grasping at the profit. You need to keep your feet on the ground and make reality based decisions. (Note that when you start to loose money fear takes the place of greed and you continue to make bad decisions)

Remember that in the end your own or your clients wealth will rest on the decisions you make. You will have down days, when you see your wealth falling what will you do? Unless, you have rock solid faith in your process you will start to tinker and go into a death spiral. To have that faith you need to have absolute discipline right from the start.

Luckily, there is a well established approach that has been developed of thousands of years to tackle this problem and it has proved very successful. It's called the Scientific method. At this point people throw up their arms and say that's too hard to understand or I don't have time for this. Well if you aren't prepared to work hard and spend the time, you've already lost. Believe me, I've done this for a long time now and I'm convinced this is the most valuable thing you can learn. It doesn't mean you have to have a PhD, wear a white coat and smoke a pipe.

The scientific method really is your friend here. Wandering away from reality into fantasy is so tempting but will lead to failure. Step away from the P&L! Don't look at the notional dollars instead work out what you know and what you can prove.

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Paul Young
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Knowledge leads to profit BUT NOT the reverse

The scientific method is your friend here. Wandering away from reality into fantasy is so tempting but will lead to failure. Step away from the P&L!

Question -> observe -> theory -> predict -> measure -> record/publish/peer review -> repeat

Think long and hard about what you believe are the facts/processes that underlie your strategy or idea. Ask questions - What properties can you measure?, what can you predict?, what is the cause? how long does it last?

Observe the world - yes this requires data but it doesn't require P&L! and probably not trading either. Form a theory on how the bits fit together then test this theory - make prediction and measure their success (accuracy etc. NOT P&L).

Objectively assess this new theory. If you are lucky enough to work in a team then this is where peer review and discussion really pay off. If you are on your own, then you face the hard task of dealing with all your behavioral biases and facing up to reality. Good luck with that.

If you make it to the end. Great job, you have learnt something new about the world or at least have an estimate and some associated uncertainty. Most importantly you can have faith that it's right not just wishful thinking.

Now repeat this process until you've built up a useful body of knowledge - a complete picture regarding your idea. Then and only then do you look at trying to best exploit what you know. This will probably lead to more research.

But finally you should have a strategy which you can finally back-test. As little as possible. With the minimum amount of data. If you've done the right job above you will already know what to expect and there shouldn't be many surprises. Resist the urge to tweak, and if you must - only do it with some careful thought and justification.

If its not the money machine that you expected then you made a mistake upstream - go back there and find out the piece you are missing. Start fiddling now and you're off to la la land again.

Do it right then you get to sleep better at night.

Sorry to ramble, but I really do believe that not sticking to the scientific method is the biggest risk to the process.