2
$\begingroup$

I am working with the program "R". I used the command "seas (X-13)" to deseasonalize my quarterly series, then I did the forecast with it. Therefore my forecast is in deseasonalized terms.

Now, I was asked to compare my forecast with the IMF (International Monetary Fund) projections... Is my forecast comparable with it?, or what can I do to make it comparable?

Improve this question
$\endgroup$
1
  • $\begingroup$ Assuming either an additive or a multiplicative model, once you've removed the seasonal component you're basically fitting the trend and forecasting it. So I guess that your forecast is comparable with IMF's one as long as your low-pass filter for the trend skims the way IMF does. $\endgroup$
    – Lisa Ann
    Commented May 23, 2019 at 16:26

1 Answer 1

Reset to default
1
$\begingroup$

There is this very good book on forecasting by Rob Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos.

There you find very useful tips and R code. Have a look at the chapter on time series decomposition there you find relevant stuff about seasonal time series.

Improve this answer
$\endgroup$
1
  • $\begingroup$ Many Thanks for your answer! $\endgroup$
    – user41107
    Commented May 21, 2019 at 19:12

Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service and acknowledge you have read our privacy policy.

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.