It is said that Edward O. Thorp was able to harness small correlations for reliable financial gain. I've seen some strategies based on strong correlations which did not seem particularly reliable. Does anyone have an idea or a paper to how the small correlation exploitation could work? I can only think of some kind of relative value arbitrage.

  • $\begingroup$ Sounds like something that a marketing person wrote. $\endgroup$ – John Apr 14 '14 at 21:58
  • $\begingroup$ @John or not? ... I read that very same sentence on wikipedia without any further evidence, so I was just curious what stands behind such claim. $\endgroup$ – Paya Apr 14 '14 at 22:36
  • $\begingroup$ What I meant is that someone could have misinterpreted something. For instance, they could say he uses small correlations for financial gain, but they also could say he diversifies. Who knows what they really mean. I wouldn't worry about it too much. $\endgroup$ – John Apr 14 '14 at 22:47

it is based on Kelly criterion. mentioned in one of stackexchange posts here .

  • $\begingroup$ Could you please provide an example/paper how I can use it for reliable returns when I know the correlation is not 0? I can't wrap my mind around it... $\endgroup$ – Paya Apr 10 '14 at 21:10
  • $\begingroup$ The system helps to choose the optimal allocation between stocks. It does not choose stocks for you. You have to select your basket. It is iterative system. It takes time to converge to optimal allocation. Do not expect to get it working in 3 trades. Also, it helps to have stocks with minimum correlation. With perfectly correlated stocks - any allocation will give the same result. The detailed description is here. $\endgroup$ – Wisentgenus Apr 11 '14 at 3:55
  • $\begingroup$ But how does this strategy benefit from small correlations? As far as I understand it, high correlation is bad, but if it's small or 0, then it's better. I thought Thorp somehow exploited the weak correlation relationship itself, rather than just building a system which expects uncorrelated assets, didn't he? $\endgroup$ – Paya Apr 11 '14 at 4:37
  • $\begingroup$ After some further research, this does seem to be the correct answer. Thorp did a lot of research in this area and the gain earned through continuous rebalancing (volatility pumping) is highest when correlation is 0. Thanks for pointing me to the right direction. $\endgroup$ – Paya Apr 15 '14 at 0:22

Correlations between what?

Correlations between stock A and another stock B - relative value arbitrage - not sure if small correlations will help here.

Correlations between stock A and its future stock return Ra - its called Information Coefficient. Try Fundamental Law of Active Management and many similar web info on Fundamental Law for more information.


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