# How to exploit calendar arbitrage?

Say we are looking at European Call options in a toy environment with zero deterministic interest rates, a stock paying no dividends, no repo rates etc...

Let $$C(T,K)$$ be the price of a call with expiry $$T$$ and strike $$K$$.

If for $$T1 < T2$$, $$C(T1,K) > C(T2,K)$$ then this is calendar arbitrage.

Please explain how should one exploit this arbitrage opportunity.

Thank you.

• Buy the T2 call and sell the T1 call.
– user59
Commented Oct 30, 2014 at 16:27

The answer by @HenriK is certainly correct. However, for justification, technique such as the Jensen inequality is needed. For example, since $x^+$ is a convex function, assuming zero interest and zero divdiend, \begin{align*} E\big((S_{T_{2}}-K)^+ \mid \mathcal{F}_{T_1} \big) &\ge \big(E(S_{T_{2}} \mid \mathcal{F}_{T_1})-K\big)^+\\ &=(S_{T_1}-K)^+. \end{align*} That is, $C(T_2) - (S_{T_1}-K)^+\ge 0$. Then, \begin{align*} C(T_2) - (S_{T_1}-K)^+ + x > 0. \end{align*}

Alternatively, if we short the option with maturity $T_1$ and long the option with with maturity $T_2$, then we have the initial profit $x= C(T_1)-C(T_2) > 0$.

At time $T_1$, if $S_{T_1}\le K$, the shorted option expires worthless, and then we have the total profit $(S_{T_2}-K)^++x$.

On the other hand, if $S_{T_1} > K$, the option is exercised, then, we short sell the stock (i.e., borrow and sell) and receive $K$. At time $T_2$, if $S_{T_2} > K$, we buy the stock by paying the amount $K$ that we had received at $T_1$, and return the stock that we had short sold at $T_1$. The net profit for our trading strategy is $x$, that is, the initial profit. On the other hand, if $S_{T_2} < K$, we buy the stock by paying $S_{T_2}$ and return the stock that we short sold at $T_1$. Note that, we had received $K$ at time $T_1$, our net profit is then $K-S_{T_2} + x>x>0$.

• The mandatory no dividends, no interest rates should be placed in bold. $S_t$ must be a martingale for the Jensen inequality to hold Commented Feb 3, 2023 at 10:46

You should always think: I buy the one which is too cheap and sell the one that is too expensive and figure it out.

The figuring out in this case is noting that:

• $$C\geq 0$$ since it will never cost you money
• The option is strictly better than $$S-K$$ so has a higher price.

Now to your strategy: You buy $$C(T_2)$$ (the cheap) and sell $$C(T_1)$$ (the expensive), call the difference $$x>0$$. At $$T_1$$ your position is

$$C(T_2) - \max\{S_{T_1}-K,0\} + x$$

The first term we have just argued is non-negative, the second is strictly positive. Arbitrage :)

• Hello! Appreciate your answer. Can you please elaborate how does one exploit if a call is priced below S-K? Commented Jan 8, 2015 at 10:58

you need to check implied volatility... Calendars must be opened when IV is low, hopping that will increase, that way you will capture the volatility increase.

• If you're hoping it's not really an arbitrage or do I misunderstand you? Commented Jan 6, 2015 at 7:16
• This answer doesn't make much sense... Commented Oct 10, 2015 at 14:06
• This is not arbitrage Commented Apr 6, 2022 at 18:31