I have a time series of closing prices for a given stock. I would like to formulate possible future scenarios for the price.
My intention is not to use these "likely" scenarios to take any position. I just want to have 3 possible scenarios that are somehow likely to happen if history repeat itself. My goal is to use these scenarios in a sort of battleplan to prepare myself in terms of trade adjustments if these (or similar) scenarios are actually going to occur.
I want to try an historical based approach: given the recent price dynamics I want to find the most likely future patterns based on what happened in the past. For example, suppose that most of the time in the past after 3 days of down moves the price has then moved up. If we are now on the third day of down move, I could consider that an upmove tomorrow is the most likely scenario.
I have seen that machine learning should do something like this but I have very limited knowledge in this field. Is there any library/toolbox I can use to easily do what I want to do? I am familiar with R, MATLAB and C#/VB so I would prefer to work with these languages if possible.
Just to add clarity: as said, I want to formulate future scenarios so what I really need is not only the most likely future pattern but also other patterns in decreasing level of likelihood. In other words, I would like to have for example the 3 most likely price trajectories that could happen in the following n days. So the machine should extract these forecasts by learning from past price dynamics. Is it something doable? Thank you.