# Is probability implied by binary FX options risk neutral or real world?

If we consider binary FX options in the market and estimate the market implied probabilities of certain FX rates occurring, would these resulting probabilities be risk neutral or real world?

I hear the term "market implied probability" being used in the work place estimated from binary options, I am not sure if this relates to risk neutral or real world?

risk-neutral. Really the forward measure. The price of the binary is struck at $K$ is $$Z P( F_T > K)$$ with $Z$ the discount factor and $F_T$ the forward, and $P$ the probability in the forward measure. If rates are deterministic, the forward measure and the risk-neutral measure will agree.