I'm thrown off by the term marginal probability of default. I've seen it defined by some authors as synonymous term for conditional probability of default
conditional probability of default: probability of defaulting given no default yet.
Which is solved for as such:
$PD_{conditional} = \frac{P(default\_anytime\_before\_period\_t1) - P(default\_in\_period\_t0)}{1-P(default\_in\_period\_t0)}$
I've also seen it defined as:
The default time density function or marginal default probability is the derivative of the default time distribution w.r.t. t:
$\frac{\partial}{\partial t}P[t^*<t]=F'(t) = \lambda e^{-\lambda t}$
Where
$t^*$ is the time of default
$t$ is the point in time we are observing from
$\lambda$ is the hazard rate
$F(t)$ = cumulative default time distribution = $P[t^* <t] = 1-e^{-\lambda}$
Question
Does this mean that $\lambda e^{-\lambda t}$ is an approximation of the conditional probability of default?