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The probability of a slump in the U.S. is just 18 percent and 23 percent over the two timeframes respectively, while the euro-area threat is greater at 24 percent and 38 percent, according to Goldman Sachs.

Article was published on 8Feb2016.

  • $\begingroup$ Do you have access to the original source of the table? $\endgroup$
    – phdstudent
    Feb 8, 2016 at 13:25
  • $\begingroup$ Unfortunately, what I have is from the article. $\endgroup$
    – curious
    Feb 8, 2016 at 13:26

1 Answer 1


There are quite a few ways to compute this. Refer to The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator, An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching, and Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities. These are used in academic and by practitioners alike.


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