The probability of a slump in the U.S. is just 18 percent and 23 percent over the two timeframes respectively, while the euro-area threat is greater at 24 percent and 38 percent, according to Goldman Sachs.
Article was published on 8Feb2016.
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Sign up to join this communityThe probability of a slump in the U.S. is just 18 percent and 23 percent over the two timeframes respectively, while the euro-area threat is greater at 24 percent and 38 percent, according to Goldman Sachs.
Article was published on 8Feb2016.
There are quite a few ways to compute this. Refer to The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator, An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching, and Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities. These are used in academic and by practitioners alike.