# Option pricing: Risk neutral probability calculation

Let $u=1.3$ $d=0.9$ $r=.05$ $S(0)=50, X = \text{strike} = 60$. Assume binomial model

Why isn't the risk neutral probability found by solving the following for $p$: $$E[S(T)]=p65+(1-p)45=S(0)(1+r)^T=60(1.05)$$

Because risk neutral probabilities should be the same in all time steps, I just took $T=1$

The correct $p=0.375$

You write $E [S_T]=S_0(1+r)^T$ but you actually compute the RHS as $X (1+r)^T$ in your numerical application.

The stock price is a martingale in an equivalent measure using the risk-free asset as numeraire i.e.

$$E [S(T)] = (S_0 u) q + (S_0 d) (1-q) = S_0 (1 + r ) \Delta t$$

In that case, dividing each member by $S_0$ and re-arranging the terms yields

$$q ( u - d ) + d = (1 + r ) \Delta t$$ $$q = \frac {(1 + r ) \Delta t - d}{u - d}$$

Doing the computations with your input data (assuming a tree period covers $\Delta t=1$) $$q = \frac {(1+0.05) - 0.9}{1.3-0.9} = 0.375$$

Note that this expression for $q$ is exactly the one given in any textbook provided $u$ (resp. $d$) figures the upward (resp. downward) growth rate of the stock over a binomial tree period $\Delta t$, while $1 + r$ represents the growth rate of the risk free asset.

Note that sometimes continuous compounding is used, in which case:

$$q = \frac {e^{r \Delta t} - d}{u - d}$$

Depending on the compounding convention you could also have

$$q = \frac {(1 + r)^{ \Delta t} - d}{u - d}$$

of course.