# what % of stocks with +$1b market cap will double in 3 years on average historically? If I'm looking to pick stocks that will double in 3 years, how do I figure out what is the likely universe that I'm choosing from? I just want a rough estimate of the universe given the market cap constraint of$1b USD market cap on a global basis. How do I go about estimating that?

I need a historical "average"... historically on average what % of stocks will double in 3 years?

Maybe make some simple standard deviation of returns for the market and see what sigma 2x in 3 years falls under? let's say if historically market goes up 12% a year... not sure if it is the right approach to it.

Basically wanted to get a rough estimate without actually crunching a whole bunch of historical numbers.

• Do you want historical estimates or some sort of prediction scheme? The latter is probably out of scope here. – Forgottenscience May 15 '16 at 13:40
• @Forgottenscience I have cleared up the question. Thanks for the feedback. – jason May 16 '16 at 6:08

1) stock that will double in 3 years means that the yearly average return must satisty $x(1+r)^3=2x$, which gives the value of r=25.99%. (a yearly return of 25.99% is highly unrealistic)