i'm currently a high school student who hasn't gone past Algebra II, and thus I have minimal Calculus knowledge. I know the basics of Integration and Derivation (drop the coefficient, raise to the coefficient), Infinite series, and some basics of random walks (ex. t^0.5 = sigma).
I am unable to solve the Black Scholes equation due to it's use of SDEs. I am however familiar with probability theory and have attempted to approximate the CDF of a Gaussian distribution using a Monte Carlo Method. I plugged in the standard deviation and strike price as (strike/sigma) then multiplied by the payout as a percent and added the risk free rate (10 year treasury) times days till expiration divided by 365 (365 days in a year duh). This gave me a value almost equal to the price on the open market. I assume that the inaccuracy is due to loss of precision when retrieving values such as the risk free rate or the asset price.
What I want to know is whether or not this method of pricing options is viable, or was the semi-successful calculation due to chance? Basically I am seeking peer review since I don't know anyone working in finance who can verify whether I messed up or not.
My proposed method:
- a function that generates a random number using the Gaussian distribution and if the number is greater than the strike price it adds 0.0001 to an increment variable, otherwise it does not add anything. Repeat 10k times and this approximates the probability of hitting the strike where each random number is one basis point significance.
- Multiply this probability by the payout in order to find the price where the expected return of the option is zero.
- Add the interest accrualed by the risk free rate over the period of time that the option is open interest because for some reason this is included in things like Sharpe Ratio and the Black Scholes Model.
- That value is the option price calculated by this method that seems to fit close with the price of options trading on exchange.