I have the following asset returns Y and the predictions for the same periods Y':
Y = { 10, 200, -1000, -1, -7 }
Y' = { 1, 2, -3, -4, -5 }
The OLR R-squared for these 2 vectors is 0.11 and the F-statistic 0.39, so clearly the explained variance is not very high. However variance analysis does not show that all the predicitions in Y' matched the same return direction than Y. To capture this point I would have to run a separate study counting each (Yn, Y'n) pair that has the same sign.
Are there better ways to fit a model and optimize the IVs coefficients for return direction? Ideally I would like to fit a model that gives more weigth to assets direction, then variance.