When our goal is pricing of derivative products we, due to no arbitrage conditions, have to use the risk neutral probability. In other side if we have risk management purpose we have to use the “physical probability” (in this place is better no look in deep what they are). However if our goal, generally speaking, is to do the forecast then what kind of probability we must use ? I think the physical, but I’m not totally sure. Maybe exist different case … I don’t known. What do you think ?