0
$\begingroup$

Suppose that the payoff of some contract is $V_{T}=S_{T}-S_{T'}$ where $T'<T$ and we want to value the contract at time $t<T'$ (the situation where this arises could be a total return swap, where a fixing is anticipated at time $T'$ for the performance period $[T',T]$). Then presumably from risk-neutral pricing $$M_{t}V_{t}=E_{t}[M_{T}(S_{T}-S_{T'})]$$ for a choice of nuumeraire $M$. If we use the $T$-forward measure, then $$V_{t}=P_{t}^{T}E^{T}_{t}[S_{T}]-P_{t}^{T}E_{t}^{T}[S_{T'}]$$ where $P_{t}^{T}$ is the discount factor observed at time $t$ for the period $[t,T]$.

The first expectation is just $S_{t}-I_{t}^{T}$ where $I_{t}^{T}$ is the present value of any income $S$ pays in $[t,T]$ (we are using the fact that in the $T$-forward measure $E_{t}^{T}[S_{T}]=Fwd_{t}^{T}[S]=\frac{S_{t}-I_{t}^{T}}{P_{t}^{T}}$.

My question is how to properly calculate the second expectation by (presumably) switching to the $T'$-forward measure. Basically, the conceptual difficulty that I am having is how to make sense of the quantity $P_{T}^{T'}$ that shows up when you change numeraires: $$P_{t}^{T}E_{t}^{T}[S_{T'}]=\frac{P_{t}^{T}E_{t}^{T'}[\frac{S_{T'}}{P_{T}^{T'}}]P_{t}^{T'}}{P_{t}^{T}}=P_{t}^{T'}E_{t}^{T'}[\frac{S_{T'}}{P_{T}^{T'}}].$$

To me it seems like a misapplication of the change of numeraire formula to substitute $T'$ instead of $T$ into the new numeraire process under the expectation, even though $S$ is being evaluated at $T'$ (the overall payoff is still at time $T$). Barring that possibility, I proceed formally like $$P_{t}^{T'}E_{t}^{T'}[\frac{S_{T'}}{P_{T}^{T'}}]=P_{t}^{T'}E_{t}^{T'}[S_{T'}P_{T'}^{T}]=P_{t}^{T'}E_{t}^{T'}[\frac{S_{T'}P_{t}^{T}}{P_{t}^{T'}}],$$ but it's not clear to me at the moment how to treat this. If we just take everything out of the expectation, we get $$P_{t}^{T}E_{t}^{T'}[S_{T'}]=P_{t}^{T}\frac{S_{t}-I_{t}^{T'}}{P_{t}^{T'}}$$

$\endgroup$
0

1 Answer 1

1
$\begingroup$

The last step (taking everything outside the expectation ) is invalid. The expression $E[\frac{S_{T'}}{P^{T'}_T}]$ is the expectation of the product of 2 random variables. As such, you need a model to describe the joint evolution of the stock and the discount factor before you can go any further.

$\endgroup$

Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service and acknowledge you have read our privacy policy.

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.