A lot of large firms are predicting that the 10 year treasury yield is going to rise. My question is that if such prediction has any substance, shouldn't the current 10 year yield rise accordingly, as people anticipate the higher rates? Shouldn't the current 10 year yield the best prediction of its future value?
Loosely speaking, we use forward yields, not spot yields, to identify the market's estimate of yields in the future. Right now, the forward yields are higher than the spot yields, because the yield curve is upward sloping. So the market is not necessarily inconsistent with the analysts' predictions.