Forgive my ignorance about my question. I understand a Monte Carlo simulation to basically be
n times that the truth is checked in some historic data set. For stock prices, if I buy some symbol at say \$100 and I want to predict the probability that the price will reach \$105 within 30 days.
Can I use a MC simulation to look at historic prices and see what the percent gain / loss was over a 30 day period from random starting points and use that to build my probability curve?
Is that too naive or will that yield decent results?