My question is: Is it possible to imply either the upside or downside (one sided) probability from looking at implied volatilities of stock options?
Let's take an example: say you had Stock A at $50, with a 3M ATM Option with an Imp. Vol of 20%.
Is there a way, using perhaps non-ATM options, or some combination of options perhaps(?), to calculate the implied probability of Stock A being >10% by expiry (let's say 3m)?