What (if one exists) is the standard way for estimating future dividends on bond etfs?
The major challenge in my mind is that the monthly dividend distributions of a bond etf (like HYG) don't necessarily correspond to the interest income received that month from the underlying bonds of the etf. This is because the ETF manager doesn't immediately turn around and pay out all of the interest income immediately.
For the past few months HYG dividends have hovered around the $0.37 mark for every month. In the near-term, you would expect the dividends to continue around there. But what happens 6 months down the line? There's a lot of variation in dividends when you look at historical periods of that length.
Now, somehow the market comes up with estimates for dividends and you can find them in the implied forwards of options on HYG. What's the standard way to do this?