Can you determine USD swap rate movement probability from OTM swaption premiums?

E.g., the USD 1y x 4y swap rate is currently 2.84%. ATM receiver swaption , European exercise is currently at ATM premium of 1.15% while swaption premium at strike 1.5% is 0.15% or about 90% lower than ATM premium. Can we infer that there is only a 10% chance that 4Y rates will be lower than 1.5% in 1 years time? Is there any other way to use OTM Swaption premiums to determine rate movement probability

In the case of European swaptions the natural numeraire is the annuity $A(t)$, the pricing measure is the annuity probability measure $P^A$, and $$\text{receiver swaption premium} = A(0) E^A[(K - S_T)^+]$$ where $S_T$ is the swap rate on exercise, therefore $$P^A(S_T < K) = \frac{1}{A(0)} \frac{\partial \text{receiver swaption premium}}{\partial K}$$