I want to examine whether corporate events affect firm's probability of default. My initial thought was a jump diffusion model, although in the literature, the only work I found, involved CDS market prices. The sector under investigation is transportation and firms are Mid-Cap without CDSs written on their debt. Is there a stochastic approach to estimate PD (Not referring to Altman Z-Scoring or any other logit-probit models).
KMV would be a could starting point,although the Expected Default Frequency needed to map Distance to Default is unknown, since it requires heavy calculations.
Any paper or lecture notes are welcomed