Is it true if I said that the stocks with the highest implied volatility for its options with just one day to expiration today will inadvertently be the stocks with the largest price movements on the next day? What is wrong with that thinking? Please explain.
2 Answers
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That said, option market makers are very well informed traders that take large risk and so some of their information is reflected in the IV inputs, for example, if the stocks 30 day HV is 15% and 20 days to expiration they input 45% as expected future Volatility (IV) then they expect a big move (up or down) in the underline. So to answer your question , one can not only rely on the IV value and DTE but rather learn for the relationship between known HV and expected volatility (IV) to even begin starting to model a prediction. IMHO.
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It would be a reasonable statement with "highest volatility." But implied volatility is a particular estimate of the volatility parameter which jumps around greatly from trade to trade and is not a good estimator of volatility.
