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I know this is a bit of a golden goose question as if someone had cracked it they'd be laughing.

I'm wondering though, if anyone can point me in the right direction for any hard measures of crowding that have been devised above and beyond pure volume data or fund manager surveys? I have tried bringing in some Sharpe ratios and dividend revision rates but nothing seems to click beyond it being a quick screen.

Point of interest for me and I can't seem to quite crack any reliable measures.

Example starting literature I've been over;

Overcrowding and capacity in factor-based investing: Should we be worried?

https://www.lgim.com/web_resources/lgim-thought-leadership/Files/Market_Insights_Overcrowding_and_Capacity_FBI_April_2018_umbrella.pdf

Value and Momentum Everywhere

Asness, Clifford S. ; Moskowitz, Tobias J. ; Pedersen, Lasse Heje Journal of Finance, June 2013, Vol.68(3), pp.929-985

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MSCI recently put out a white paper on a factor crowding model. Haven't had time to go through it yet but it might just be what you're looking for (link below).

https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/acf506d5-4254-b85f-e213-eaef95661970

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    $\begingroup$ This is very interesting and has some really good validation, thanks for this. $\endgroup$ – Wrothschild Aug 14 '18 at 10:24
  • $\begingroup$ Nicholas Rabener and his people have done some work on the problem. factorresearch.com/factor-crowding $\endgroup$ – Alex C Aug 20 '18 at 13:30

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