Consider the current situation: we are entering December, meaning that the December futures are being rolled into the March futures (i.e. traders are selling their holdings of December futures contracts before they expire so that they don't have to take delivery, and correspondingly buying the March futures contracts).
There are two things I am wondering about:
Pricing the market value of a futures roll.
Estimating the fair value of a futures roll.
Pricing futures roll
I'm guessing this is either the spread between the bond futures (Dec and March) or the spread between their fair values, which is computed as the cash (market) value of the CTD bond plus the cost of carry.
Estimating FV of futures roll
I've been given a hint about what one might estimate as the fair value of the futures roll. I think it involves the net basis of each of the CTD bonds. This makes sense, as the net basis is the gross basis accounting for the implied repo rate, which is the cost of borrowing now for delivery in the future.
If you could help formulate these definitions and calculations for me then it would be much appreciated. In order to do examples in the calculations (if you like), then just use random values for price, yield, net basis, repo rate etc.