Let's say that I have an exponential moving average as a momentum indicator on a stock at the daily scale (EOD).
My trading strategy is to buy the stock on a sufficiently large close over the EMA.
I am interested in being able to preempt this indicator intra-day, if there is a sufficiently large breakout during that time.
For example, there may be a sequence of strong hourly closes, each higher than the last - this could give a reasonable estimate of the chance of triggering at the end of the day.
My question is whether there are any frameworks available to determine what constitutes a "strong" breakout at the hourly closes, say for a given probability.