# Strategy if dividend is lower than expected

Here is a question I encountered:

In 2009, a trader believes that dividends for a stock in 2011 will be lower than expected, what is the best strategy among: long/short 2010 forward, long/short 2011 forward.

For me, if the trader believes the dividends will be lower than expected, it means that equivalently he expects that the stock price will be higher than expected in 2011. The formulation of the problem is not very clear, but I supposed that the 2011 forward contract was after the ex-dividend date of the stock. Therefore, by using the formula for the forward price: \begin{align} F_0 = S_0 e^{(r-q)T} \end{align} The forward in the eyes of the trader is underpriced, and he would long the 2011 forward. Is my reasoning correct?