1=> Does anyone have a suggestion to determine a trend correctly.
My answer is in general and an opinion. Hong Kong Stock Exchange is third largest market behind Tokyo and Shanghai and most volatile market in the world. It is related to Singapore, Shanghai and Shenzhen, Korea, Taiwan and other famous Asian markets.
For rough overall trends, one might look into daily charts, as you can see in below. You can see that now it is in upward, since you can see that the green candles are intersecting with the upper line of the BBs.
BBs, MACD and VWAP are three good and reasonable indicators to look into for future trends, of-course depends on which time-frames one might be looking at (
1-hour, ..., daily).
Futures are positive based on this chart, due to many instances of intersecting green candles and upper BBs.
There are much more technicals such as MACD and VWAP to discuss, but I just wanted to give a perspective of being rather difficult to determine a trend correctly.
2=> Does it work out if you determine a trend from 5-min time frame data
and determine turning point from 1-min time frame data, basically
mixing use of different time-frames data.
For your second question, it is also difficult to answer, but your key point is valid, you usually look into a combination of time-frames to estimate the trend of another future time-frame.
About does it work, maybe or probably not, since several macroeconomic parameters might unexpectedly or relatively unexpectedly hit a market, especially Hang Seng Futures, because HKE is a relatively large market relative to Hong Kong economy, as it is of-course one of the key cornerstones/financial centers of Asian markets.
- I'm not specialized on minutes charts.
- Since market futures are related to macro-economics, are much difficult to estimate a trend, even for minutes, almost impossible to be correct for the full trend. You might only find part of the trend based on specific indicators and probabilities, only based on hands on experience.
- I see your MACD/MACD signals, it is a good indicator to scan, as you can see, they are one of my indicators too in my charts.
- No machine learning, no algorithms, no other fancy methods are recommended for this task, and nothing that creates distractions.
[Dis: This is not an investing/trading advice.]
Have A Protocol and Optimize Your Protocol
The protocol we like to follow:
If not you, you then might need a sharp focused rational trader to do this future market estimation, maybe with 2-3 other trading/investing assistants to prepare materials, yet making final decisions single-handedly. (Check if the key trader is ready today. Not, no decisions, only watching.)
Look into a few key markets that are closed before Honk Kong, of-course U.S. is the first to look (U.K., Germany, etc.). Also listed neighbor markets (Japan, Singapore, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Korea, Taiwan, etc.)
- Look into US daily economic factors such as OBFRVOL, T10Y2Y, DGS10, FFR, also LIBOR of UK
- Look into similar Hong Kong economic numbers (e.g., HIBOR, daily numbers, commodities, etc.), make sure look into monthly unemployment and other factors on a timely basis.
- Check relevant exchange rates.
- News related to Hong Kong markets, then news related to Hong Kong Futures (similar to Dow Futures, etc.)
Pick a key indicator, maybe BBs, and 2-3 other supplementary indicators MACD, VWAP, EMAC20 crossing MA50, etc.
If you wish, weight them simple (Ax1+Bx2+Cx3), maybe linearly, and maybe in your mind. If necessary, maybe write a simple linear macro on your chart.
On a daily basis, open charts and walk from daily to minutely charts using a set of indicators.
Watch your indicators, and you will start seeing patterns, make some generalized rules, and maybe remember this rule before all other rules that:
- All your rules is to break one day You might need to be prepared for this rule.
Then, look into other indicators, and they have to do the same green passes, you can see that the rule is not definite.
Define to see how you might estimate a trend (Sorry! can't help you here!)
- Only that key expert (trader) makes decision, when ready, with no doubt.
Doubt = NO DECISION, ONLY WATCHING
In sum, both your questions include uncertainty , it is up to you, and answers to them are just based on probabilities and hands on experience on Hang Seng Futures.