1
$\begingroup$

I am working with the program "R". I used the command "seas (X-13)" to deseasonalize my quarterly series, then I did the forecast with it. Therefore my forecast is in deseasonalized terms.

Now, I was asked to compare my forecast with the IMF (International Monetary Fund) projections... Is my forecast comparable with it?, or what can I do to make it comparable?

$\endgroup$
  • $\begingroup$ Assuming either an additive or a multiplicative model, once you've removed the seasonal component you're basically fitting the trend and forecasting it. So I guess that your forecast is comparable with IMF's one as long as your low-pass filter for the trend skims the way IMF does. $\endgroup$ – Lisa Ann May 23 at 16:26
1
$\begingroup$

There is this very good book on forecasting by Rob Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos.

There you find very useful tips and R code. Have a look at the chapter on time series decomposition there you find relevant stuff about seasonal time series.

$\endgroup$
  • $\begingroup$ Many Thanks for your answer! $\endgroup$ – user41107 May 21 at 19:12

Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service, privacy policy and cookie policy

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.