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What is the convention for pricing the expected 1-day move of a binary event based off of the implied volatility of the nearest series which contains that event? How do you distinguish between the price range of a one-day move with 68% of future observations expected to fall inside of and the expected daily move as priced by the straddle? How does one reconcile longer dated series with greater extrinsic value of the bucketed implied vol and one-day implied moves for binary events that occur early on in the series' life? What is the relationship between the 1 SD expected move and $\frac{2}{\pi}$.

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