By non-arbitrage, it is easy to show the relationship between fx forward and fx spot via the domestic and foreign currency interest rates.

I am wondering how we can express this in terms of the pricing theory. Assume spot fx rate is F(t) and the T-forward fx rate is F(T). How do we calculate E[F(T)]? which numeraire should be used ?

  • 2
    $\begingroup$ In general,it is under the forward measure. However, with the deterministic interest rate assumption, the forward and the risk neutral respective measures are the same. $\endgroup$ – Gordon Nov 1 '19 at 13:58

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