I am working on a forward market with limit order books. My idea is to illustrate market operations and trading behaviors through discrete event simulation. Consumption assets are traded in the market, so the supply and demand of the actual delivery process have an effect. According to Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets by John Hull, "a consumption asset is an asset that is held primarily for consumption and not usually for investment purposes. Examples of consumption assets are commodities such as copper, oil, and pork bellies."

I am wondering if anyone can recommend some literature on decision-making strategies under such conditions. For example, there is a supplier of potatoes. He cannot know the precise yield in a future time unit t. He can only trade in this market and before the unit t, because it is a forward market. How would he predict the evolution of forward prices for one kg of potatoes in unit t? What kind of orders should he submit? When should he submit the order? How should he maintain the limit orders?


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