Looking at oil prices now(https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.html)
May Futures - $20
June Futures - $26
Spot - $20
With price convergence theory, may futures matches closely with spot. This makes sense.
However, May futures are rolling over soon(Apr 21). Once rolled over, June futures become the main futures contract in variety of oil ETFs(USO, etc)
Assuming a scenario where the above prices remain constant until rollover date:
When this happens, does June futures start to decline to match closer with spot price?(June futures goes from 26 to 23, for example).
If this above happens, does this happen quickly? Does this not create opportunity for arbitrage, where you can buy inverse ETFs to profit off of the convergence of June futures to spot oil?