I'm a newbie to econometrics. I've simply ran a regression and have coefficient values of the variables. I'm running a regression for a crypto data, and I've gotten the Spread of the variables. To forecast, I'll need to fit this spread into ARIMA AR(1) process after finding the best fit is AR(1).
This is the scenario. Configuring a tradable mean for a time series data is what I'm trying to achieve. The steps I've taken are creating a regression using OLS from the first difference of the time series data.
From this I got the tradable formula, which is a spread between the variables used. It's now time to forecast using ARMA model.
I created the ACF and PACF charts using the residuals from the OLS model, and got to know it's an AR(1) process.
If the spread of the difference between the variables I'll like to know how to fit the spread into this AR(1) process of ARMA.
Please, kindly help out.