These slides describe escape dynamics to be a type of, or having some relation to, rare event(s). Black swan events in business cycles was also included under the definition of rare events. My guess is that "escape" in this context refers to disequilibrium (escape from equilibrium), but not sure.

What and how are escape dynamics expressed, studied, or useful in financial economics/financial time series?

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    $\begingroup$ This seems to be a concept in general equilibrium macroeconomic theory. Not sure if it has that many applications. However, models like these can be useful as a possible explanation to rare events that are simply taken as given in more applied models. $\endgroup$ – fesman Nov 9 '20 at 16:01
  • $\begingroup$ I have not looked at the slides I will comment first then go back as I know the finance answer, not necessarily re: your slides; the method of extremes for risk management in finance comes from the science of the weather like hurricanes and bushfires, it is extreme value modelling I have given an extensive answer to this already today. I will halt here and check your slides before addressing the issue further. $\endgroup$ – Con Fluentsy Nov 11 '20 at 23:35
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    $\begingroup$ Thank you for the lecture slides it appears to be a mathematics /statistics course related to financial applications, he is taking a very obscure path to extreme risk control/measuremnet called escape theory, I will check it out . The accepted methods from financial engineering and econophysics are extrem value distributions and and models, and Extreme changepoint detection, and runs tests and control theory from engineering generally. As far as Extrem changepoint detection the model of shiryaev roberts, as explained in William ZIemba's book on Stock Markets Crashes. $\endgroup$ – Con Fluentsy Nov 11 '20 at 23:47
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    $\begingroup$ There are a few other equally effective extreme statistical estimators equally effective and in some sense easier to estimate, they are available in the R finance libraries. As is the Shiryaev Roberts estimator, however I can not get it to work in R unsure of the exact parameter definitions. Ziemba designed his shiryaev model from scratch in Matlab. Didier Sornette has a book using fractal geometry and indicators on crashes. And there is quite a number of great books on Extreme value theory and estimation mostly in R , you would have to reinvent the wheel in Python or Matlab. $\endgroup$ – Con Fluentsy Nov 11 '20 at 23:53
  • $\begingroup$ see my answer to Nassim taleb on tail risk quant.stackexchange.com/questions/55263/… $\endgroup$ – Con Fluentsy Nov 11 '20 at 23:59

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