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I was wondering when you enter a swap at the forward expiration under which scenarios you are hedged or not.

For example, a European exporter buys a fwd to hedge a delivery of $1m in 6 months (long 6m EURUSD fwd). Then the client delays the payment by 3 months so the European exporter enters into a swap with near leg(spot leg) at expiry of the forward and far leg (fwd leg) 3 months afterwards.

SCENARIO 1)forward points don't change

at inception (fwd start) spot EURUSD = 1.10000 and fwd rate EURUSD = 1.1600, so I will receive EUR 1.16m in exchange for $1m in 6 months.

after 6 months (fwd expiry and swap start), spot EURUSD = 1.20000 and fwd rate EURUSD = 1.2600. I receive EUR1.16m from the fwd counterparty and I enter a swap at current spot rate so I receive $1m in exchange for EUR1.2m (spot leg of the swap)

after 9 months (swap expiry) I receive the $1m from the client and so exchange this amount for EUR 1.26m (fwd leg of the swap).

Therefore, I loss EUR40k from the fwd but I gain EUR60k from the swap, total PnL = EUR +20k

SCENARIO 2)forward points decrease

at inception (fwd start) spot EURUSD = 1.10000 and fwd rate EURUSD = 1.1300, so I will receive EUR 1.13m in exchange for $1m in 6 months.

after 6 months (fwd expiry and swap start), spot EURUSD = 1.20000 and fwd rate EURUSD = 1.2200. I receive EUR1.13m from the fwd counterparty and I enter a swap at current spot rate so I receive $1m in exchange for EUR1.2m (spot leg of the swap)

after 9 months (swap expiry) I receive the $1m from the client and so exchange this amount for EUR 1.22m (fwd leg of the swap).

Therefore, I loss EUR70k from the fwd but I gain EUR20k from the swap, total PnL = EUR -50k

If I can lose or gain from the rollover why I would enter into a swap to hedge my exposure?

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