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According to the expectations hypothesis we get the long rates via the expected short rates and then adding a term premium.

One therefore needs to consider how the short rate might change. I suppose the central bank essentially set this rate. This is done with the purpose to steer the economy.

To get an idea of how the short rate might evolve one might then consider the macro outlook right? i.e the future short rate is a function of growth in GDP, employment and inflation?

Is this the right idea?

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Yes short term rates tend to be highly dependent on central bank actions. For example the short end of Treasury yield curve is highly correlated with the Effective Federal Funds Rate (FFR) or the midpoint of the target range set by Fed. One way to forecast short rates would therefore be to predict CB actions. CB policy functions on the other hand are often approximated by a Taylor rule that is assumed to depend on inflation and output gap.

From a more econometric angle a standard model for short rates is an AR(1) / Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-process. This works fairly well because short rates tend to be very persistent. This paper studies the performance of different variables in predicting the FFR. It finds that the current FFR and employment are the best predictors. FFR futures can also be used with the caveat that they represent risk neutral market expectations.

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