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After the Georgia Senate runoff results were called today (Jan. 6, 2021), I had expected the IV on many election-related tickers to fall. In other words, I thought a major IV crush was in the cards.

For example, SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG), which benefits from a Democratic Senate, should have seen its implied volatility fall drastically over the day while the stock went up.

Conversely, tech stocks like NFLX, which are harmed by a Democratic Senate, saw their volatility go UP.

I don't understand. Isn't Implied Volatility supposed to fall after the related binary event?

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Implied Volatility represents uncertainty. While the election is over, there is no certainly in future laws that will help or hurt any company. There are certainly other factors other then the election which can increase uncertainty for the company.

Same for NetFlix. The election is one of only many factors which contribute to uncertainty. Again, no future laws are guaranteed, which adds uncertainty (perhaps it was more certain that no new regulations would come with a GOP senate, but the opposite is not necessarily true). There are many other factors as well: Competition in the market? The effect of its price hike? Reopening of movie theaters? All of these contribute to uncertainty.

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