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This is an extension of problem 3.16 in Mark Joshi's book. My answer is to avoid Thursday, and all other weekdays are equally good. The probability that the fourth business day is Thursday is 3/7 (when the month starts with Saturday, Sunday and Monday). The probability that the fourth business day is any other weekday is 1/7.

Is my reasoning correct? Or are there other traps in this problem?

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  • $\begingroup$ I saw this question as well (preping for quant interviews). I think your reasoning is correct. I found this question and his followups to be a bit confusingly worded. $\endgroup$ Mar 30 at 17:53
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Opt for the Roman Republican calendar, called nundinae, consisting of 8 days, lettered A to H. Choose G and it will never fall on the 4th business day of the month! The probability of it is 0%. You might also stay put on March 15th.

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