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I am working on a college project wherein I want my machine learning model to predict the one-day-ahead direction of a given stock (i.e. whether the closing price of the stock would rise or fall as compared to previous day's closing price).

I am currently working on feature generation/extraction. In stock price direction prediction literature, the use technical indicators has been extensively studied. But I could not find much literature on the use of price action (candlestick patterns, to be specific) for prediction. So I want to implement candlestick patterns along with technical indicators to predict the direction. I generated some candle patterns from my data and assigned them scores.

The scores were assigned as follows:

If r denotes the no. of times the price moved in the direction indicated by the pattern and w denotes the no. of times the price moved in the opposite direction then, score = r/(r + w)

Now this is where I am confused and unsure about my approach. Some patterns obtained scores around 50% or less. Would these really help the model in predicting better? Or should I just drop the idea of using candlesticks and get on with technical indicators only?

Any advice or help is highly appreciated. Thank you.

P.S: I had asked this question on Cross Validated Stack Exchange and was advised to post the question here.

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  • $\begingroup$ I can't advise on your ML approach, but if you're using ML.NET and need to produce technical indicators from quote histories, here's a .NET library that has a large universe of technical indicators: Stock.Indicators. Most of these also have manually calculated Excel spreadsheet examples in the affiliated GitHub repo if you want to see how they are calculated. $\endgroup$ – Dave Skender May 30 at 19:54
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The accuracy of a model is only 1 factor in determining usefulness. Aside from the accuracy, it would help to determine how you would implement it in a simulated trading environment and look into the performance further.

Aside from a hit ratio or accuracy, you should compute other metrics such as:

  • The risk-reward ratio that your model realizes (not the theoretical one that you hope it will)
  • The profit factor: gross profit divided by gross loss
  • Average gain and average loss
  • Your expectancy per trade: (avg gain x hit ratio) - (avg loss x (1-hit ratio))
  • Breakeven ratio: 1 / (1 + avg win / avg lost)

There are other metrics, too, but they wind up having some redundancy. I'm sure you could find a ton if you do some searching or googling. The point is that a correct prediction 50% of the time could be profitable if it returns more than it risks. On the other hand, a model that hit's 80% of its trades but only returns 1 for every 10 it risks could be very unprofitable. You should make looking into other metrics a habit to be sure you aren't throwing away models that warrant further investigating or chasing models that aren't worth it.

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  • $\begingroup$ thanks for the pointers. So the way I can check whether candlesticks would help me or not is by actually trying them out? Also what do you think about assigning the scores to the patterns? Is it a good idea? $\endgroup$ – Aditya Kulkarni Apr 6 at 1:56
  • $\begingroup$ Yes, try them out. IMO, adding a scoring feature would be down the road--at this stage you would just be adding complexity for no reason. I would opt to make each pattern it's own model at first and see which patterns are worth investigating and which aren't. $\endgroup$ – amdopt Apr 6 at 9:42

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