I am wondering why autocall probabilities decrease with observation dates. Intuitively, I understand that as time goes, if the spot has not breached the barrier, it would need more and more kind of recovery to autocall. But does anyone has a more rigorous understanding ?

  • $\begingroup$ I am assuming that will depend on what your system displays? It is likely MC simulation? Maybe it is cumulative? If it autocalls with 95% in first period, there will only be 5% left for all other periods in this case. $\endgroup$
    – AKdemy
    May 17 at 16:30
  • $\begingroup$ It is indeed MC simulation, thank you $\endgroup$
    – Pierre_G
    Sep 3 at 7:59

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