I'm working with a hedge expirement design, where I daily hedge with EGARCH(1,1) forecasted volatilty based on a moving evaluation of the past 126 days. However, I can't seem to understand the profit and loss path of my portfolio. I have portfolio where I initially go long in the option and delta short with the daily estimated EGARCH(1,1) volatilty. During this hedging period, the stock-price rapidbly falls 300 dollars. Thus the option end far OTM. Consequently the volatilty rapidbly grows, as illustrated here:
However, I can't seem to understand why by this portfolio construction. My portfolio ends up having a Profit and loss of like this: Where the one growing and ending at 94$ is the portfolio with the paths illustrated.