Let's say I have a signal that is triggered by some "event".
The event can happen any number (N) of times per day, month or quarter.
I have a bankroll W.
Ideally, I have a perfect forecast of N and I invest, let's say I want equal notional weight, W/N in each idea.
But, if I don't know N, and have equal (low) conviction in each idea, how do you go about allocating to an opportunity like this?
I could see historically N / week( or month) and allocate accordingly. If there are more events, I could sell pro-rata and re-invest in the new event...etc.
Just wondering if there is something smarter to do here.