Extract from my answer about what the VIX measures (more details on the notation and the conventions I am using can be found in the preceding sections from that answer):
About changing the measure
(This section is based on currently non-public lecture notes by Dylan Possamaï for a course on mathematical finance. I will update it with precise references if the lecture notes are published. For now, I will insert [RefN] where a precise reference is needed.)
TODO: Update this part for non-zero interest rate.
For simplicity I will assume that the interest rate is zero (it is actually not hard to incorporate a constant interest rate $r$.) We deal with only one security, which is an Itô process of the form $$S_t=S_0+\int_0^tb_s\,\mathrm ds+\int_0^t\mathfrak S_s\,\mathrm dW_s.$$
If there is no arbitrage [RefN], then there always exists an $\mathbb F$-predictable stochastic process $\lambda$ such that
$$
\mathfrak S_s(\omega)\lambda_s(\omega)=b_s(\omega)
$$
for $\mathrm dt\otimes\mathsf P$-almost all $(s,\omega)\in[0,T]\times\Omega$.
We will assume that
$$
Z_t\overset{\text{Def.}}=\exp\left(-\int_0^t\lambda_s\,\mathrm dW_s-\frac12\int_0^t\lambda_s^2\,\mathrm ds\right), \quad t\in[0,T]
$$
is well-defined and an $(\mathbb F,\mathsf P)$-martingale. In fact, if $Z_t$ is well-defined and an $(\mathbb F,\mathsf P)$-martingale, then it follows that there is no arbitrage in the market (up to time $T$).
In this case, we can prove that the measure $\mathsf Q$ given by $\frac{\mathrm d\mathsf Q}{\mathrm d\mathsf P}=Z_T$ is an equivalent (local) martingale measure for the financial market up to time horizon $T$:
By Girsanov's Theorem [RefN], the stochastic process $(W^{\mathsf Q}_t)_{t\in[0,T]}$ given by
$$
W_t^{\mathsf Q}=W_t+\int_0^t\lambda_s\,\mathrm ds
$$
is an $(\mathbb F,\mathsf Q)$-Brownian motion (up to to time $T$).
Therefore, for any progressively measurable stochastic process $\mathfrak S=(\mathfrak S)_{s\in[0,T]}$ with $\mathsf E^{\mathsf P}\left(\int_0^T\mathfrak S_s^2\,\mathrm ds\right)<\infty$ and $t\in[0,T]$, we have
$$
\int_0^t \mathfrak S_s\,\mathrm dW_s=\int_0^t \mathfrak S_s\,\mathrm d\left(W_s^{\mathsf Q}-\int_0^s\lambda_\tau\,\mathrm d\tau\right)=\int_0^t\mathfrak S_s\,\mathrm dW_s^{\mathsf Q}-\int_0^t\mathfrak S_s\lambda_s\,\mathrm ds,
$$
where the associativity of the stochastic integral [RefN] was used in the last equality.
Therefore, if the price process $(S_t)_{t\in [0,T]}$ is an Itô process
$$
S_t = S_0+\int_0^tb_s\,\mathrm ds+\int_0^t\mathfrak S_s\,\mathrm dW_s,
$$
then
$$
S_t=S_0+\int_0^t\mathfrak S_s\,\mathrm dW_s^{\mathsf Q}-\int_0^t\mathfrak S_s\lambda_s\,\mathrm ds+\int_0^tb_s\,\mathrm ds=S_0+\int_0^t\mathfrak S_s\,\mathrm dW_s^{\mathsf Q}.
$$
Furthermore, by the regularity assumed on $\mathfrak S_s$, the stochastic integral $\int_0^t\mathfrak S_s\,\mathrm dW_s^{\mathsf Q}$ is an $(\mathbb F,\mathsf Q)$-martingale [RefN] [see also Footnote 6 in my VIX answer]. This shows two things:
- $\mathsf Q$ is an equivalent martingale measure for the market consisting only of the security with price process $S$.
- The volatility term of $S_t$ remains unchanged when we go from $\mathsf P$ to $\mathsf Q$. However, the drift disappears so that $S$ is now a martingale.