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New to the quant finance exchange. I am stuck with a question maybe someone could help me.

In the table below I have calculated if price is up/down w.r.t to the open shown in the 2nd column with pluses and minuses. I have done this for today and then concatenated yesterdays price changes with today in the second row (and then concatenated 3 day price changes)

I columns 3/4 I have the result of whether price will up/down at the end of the day 1 and columns 6/7 have the percentages.

Now if I do this exercise I will have varying probabilities for end price of Day 1. Day 1 has 55%/45%, Day 2 25%/75% and Day 3 0%/100%. My question is the following is there anyway of getting a global probability (a kind of average) for all 3 days? Table below

Thanks for your help.

Regards, David

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  • $\begingroup$ Could you elaborate on what you mean by global average? What would the global average be based on the above table? $\endgroup$
    – Julie Taylor
    Feb 6, 2022 at 18:13
  • $\begingroup$ Sure apologies. what I meant was can I get an average for column 6 and an average for column 7. I can simply average them as that would not make sense. I am unsure how to proceed. Thanks $\endgroup$
    – David
    Feb 6, 2022 at 18:30
  • $\begingroup$ would a probit model work? $\endgroup$
    – David
    Feb 6, 2022 at 19:46

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