# Average probability of varying input data

New to the quant finance exchange. I am stuck with a question maybe someone could help me.

In the table below I have calculated if price is up/down w.r.t to the open shown in the 2nd column with pluses and minuses. I have done this for today and then concatenated yesterdays price changes with today in the second row (and then concatenated 3 day price changes)

I columns 3/4 I have the result of whether price will up/down at the end of the day 1 and columns 6/7 have the percentages.

Now if I do this exercise I will have varying probabilities for end price of Day 1. Day 1 has 55%/45%, Day 2 25%/75% and Day 3 0%/100%. My question is the following is there anyway of getting a global probability (a kind of average) for all 3 days? Table below

Regards, David

• Could you elaborate on what you mean by global average? What would the global average be based on the above table? Commented Feb 6, 2022 at 18:13
• Sure apologies. what I meant was can I get an average for column 6 and an average for column 7. I can simply average them as that would not make sense. I am unsure how to proceed. Thanks Commented Feb 6, 2022 at 18:30
• would a probit model work? Commented Feb 6, 2022 at 19:46