New to the quant finance exchange. I am stuck with a question maybe someone could help me.
In the table below I have calculated if price is up/down w.r.t to the open shown in the 2nd column with pluses and minuses. I have done this for today and then concatenated yesterdays price changes with today in the second row (and then concatenated 3 day price changes)
I columns 3/4 I have the result of whether price will up/down at the end of the day 1 and columns 6/7 have the percentages.
Now if I do this exercise I will have varying probabilities for end price of Day 1. Day 1 has 55%/45%, Day 2 25%/75% and Day 3 0%/100%. My question is the following is there anyway of getting a global probability (a kind of average) for all 3 days? Table below
Thanks for your help.