I am looking for a metric for measuring "the expectation of the tightness of monetary policy." I know this is a super vague concept.
My ideal metric is something I can do a "spot price / avg price of past year" to gauge the "expectation" of the tightness of monetary policy. It should ideally also be "forward looking" i.e. reflect market's expectation, rather than what has already happened.
Fed fund rate futures would have been a decent forward-looking metric but Fed can still increase/decrease the balance sheet when Fed fund rate remains constant. The Fed balance sheet itself is not "forward-looking" as it only reflects the asset Fed already acquired.
What other metrics are out there?