Say I have historical data of a ticker for the past 5 years. I look at the price on the current date for each of the five years (e.g. today is 20 Jul 2023 so I will look at 20 Jul 2022, etc.) and then consider the returns for 3 months (60-80 business days) from that day.
Can I use this as the sample space to determine how the price will move based on historical data?
I'm thinking to use the return as a way to normalise the historical prices to current price and then work out the probability of the returns to answer this question.