At the near culmination (allegedly) of the fastest prolonged Fed Funds Rate hike episode in US history, we find two unusual things:
- the overall yield curve between 3-month and 10 year Treasuries has consistently remained inverted during the hikes.
- According to Bloomberg ( https://archive.is/IHjcM ), the rate hike live announcements by Fed Chair Powell have been unabashedly bullish for both equities and 10 year Treasuries, during the hour of the Fed's announcement!
Specifically, for the 10yr Treasury, we see the following pattern:
- First the 10yr yield rises pre-announcement,
- Then, during the announcement the yield has consistently fallen. The graph below shows the cumulative effect of announcement after announcement, as if they were contiguous.
My question is how much money does it take, in 2023, to move the 10 year yield by 10bps? Or if there are any references to historical data showing 10yr treasury market volumes during the hours of Fed announcements, that would be much appreciated.
Note: my question is in the context of the unusual recent rate hike cycle, with concern about manipulation, given that money thrown at the 10 year market helps maintain equities buoyant (because equity markets price off of the 10yr market, generally).