0
$\begingroup$

Apologies in advance if this problem is somewhat ill-posed. But I was thinking given the price of a call option can be formulated in terms of a implied probability density function at time $T$, would it be possible to price a call option given a non-lognormal distribution of daily returns?

My question would be how would one scale a daily returns distribution (one that is not lognormal) to match the tenor of the option to get the implied distribution of spot at $T$? I would imagine once we have that we can simply compute the below integral to get the price of the option?

$$ c = e^{-rT}*\int_{K}^{\infty}(S-K)p(S)dS $$

$\endgroup$

1 Answer 1

1
$\begingroup$

Absolutely! You're on the right track. Option pricing can be understood in terms of an integral over the risk-neutral probability distribution of the underlying asset's payoff at expiration. When the distribution of returns is log-normal (as in the Black-Scholes model), the integral simplifies to the familiar Black-Scholes formula. However, if we know the distribution, we can always price the option using the general formula.

$\endgroup$

Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service and acknowledge that you have read and understand our privacy policy and code of conduct.

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.